Topic > Delphi method: forecasting approaches

The Delphi method is part of the large family of forecasting approaches used in Statistics. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events in an increasingly complex world economy, making forecasting challenging. Forecasting involves taking past events, such as online sales, and predicting them using mathematical or intuitive techniques. We may use intuition due to the consideration of the product cycle, where sales are in the phase of introduction, growth, maturity or decline. This is why there is rarely a perfect forecasting method. Demand can also influence forecasts, for example, the demand for aluminum in the aircraft market. There are seven steps in the forecasting system. First, determining the use of the forecast. After deciding on the use of prediction, we should select the population on which to draw statistical inference. The duration of the forecast should determine the third phase of the forecast, regardless of whether the forecast is made in the short, medium or long term. After these 3 steps, we should carefully choose the prediction models and collect the data we need for prediction. Ultimately, making the predictions, validating the results, and implementing the results are the last steps. There are 2 types of forecasting approaches: quantitative and qualitative. There are 5 quantitative methods which include the aisle approach, moving averages and exponential smoothing, part of the time series models group. Associative models are regressions of linear trends that are part of the extended family of quantitative forecasting methods. Moving on to qualitative methods, there are four different forecasting techniques: market survey, sales force composition, executive opinion jury and Delphi method. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on "Why Violent Video Games Shouldn't Be Banned"? Get an original essay The Delphi forecasting method is a qualitative method. “Qualitative predictions incorporate the decision maker's intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value systems.” A qualitative research method has its weaknesses that can lead to inaccuracies. Vision in how we approach research can have its advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, a smaller sample size can lead to a more in-depth investigation of the topic under study. It can also facilitate the discovery of new ideas. On the other hand, a smaller size cannot be generalized to the larger population. If we vary the questions, one of the disadvantages would be a long time to interpret the data, and it could also lead to follow-up questions during the data collection time. Furthermore, diverse questions can facilitate different directions for researchers, and obtaining a more elaborate and in-depth exploration during the data collection process can be the disadvantage of a diverse set of questions. A natural environment can help with more valid results. The disadvantages may be that the data cannot be reliable if the respondent becomes unbiased. Meanwhile, research cannot produce any information if the study is not targeted and properly planned. The Delphi technique was introduced in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation and its name comes from the Delphi Oracle. The Delphi method is also known as ETE - Estimate talk Estimate. The traditional version was a multi-round survey, widely used in business and used as a means of communication in a think tank. A big advantage of the Delphi technique over other forecasting methods, especially for businesses, as an anonymous survey method, is that it maintains the advantages of.